For most of the past 100 years the world of economics was dominated by rational choice theory. The idea being that people made the best choice of the given options. But in the past 10 years a better theory has emerged. Actually it is not a theory, its based on empirical evidence. People regularly make bad choices. Occasionally they make good choices. It is not all bad, but in general a non expert will often make a bad choice.
The game we play here exploits that aspect of human beings with just about every update. you can’t count on the attack you are using to today working after the next update. But the big issue with people is inertia. Folks resist change more than anything. So we had the guy who ran mass hogs months after they were shown to be ineffective. He would regularly find a dead farm city that he could run mass hogs on and show the replay to prove that they worked! except he always euro starred in war with that att and blamed it on “bad luck”. And after a few months of eternal bad luck, he quit the game.
Of course the problem wasn’t bad luck. The problem was the old solution was now the new problem. But human inertia was the culprit. avoiding change at all costs to your detriment. So this is not an argument to even do what is best for the clan, though it is. The real argument is do what is best for you in terms of success. And people left to their own devices and under the bone crushing pressure of personal inertia just…willl…not…change.
The problem is change takes work and usually results in initial failure until the new process is integrated. it is a preference for the “devil you know”. The problem of course is that devil makes you ineffective. Lets say you have 3 players at th 9. One runs drags. That player can 3 star maybe 3% of th 9’s. The next player runs giheho. He gets 3 stars 50% of the time. The last runs hogs with golems and wizards (I call this gohogs, others call it hogowi) and gets 3 stars 70% of the time. Anyone with basic math skills can see that you want a 50% or better chance of success to be effective in war where you get 2 atts. The really low probability atts are doubly trouble. They don’t help the clan win. And they tend to make people opt out of wars as they are not happy about continued “bad luck”.
so this is the current thinking on choice architecture. You need to limit people to healthy choices (in economics they use a program called Save More Tomorrow where you increase your savings automatically as your salary goes up.) We have had to simply ban atts in the past because, due to good old inertia. So right now the probability of 3 starring a th 9 in war with drags is like 1%, 3% and 10% for drags 3, 4 and 5 respectively. its a poor choice, so like the mass hog ban, we need to go to a drag ban at th 9.
But the other part of this choice architecture is this. You have to take the edge off of failure. Having experienced this first hand (I ran my first ever golem att in war with no practice, just some coaching) I can tell you that learning new atts in war with the outcome on the line is a whole lot more pressure than you need in your day. Yes, it is easier to learn this in farm mode or in a training week. But there again we have inertia. so the most likely way to get this plan into effect is run a couple wars where the choice architecture gives you two “healthy” choices. These will go down as practice wars so there is no pressure to execute any one att. The pressure is to learn an attack that has at least a 50% chance of getting 3 stars at the 9 vs level.